CPB forecasts that the ongoing Middle East conflict could erode Dutch households' purchasing power by up to 1.4% this year, reversing earlier expectations of a 1.4% gain.

The Dutch government's economic advisory body analyzed three scenarios based on oil price trajectories amid the war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which handles a fifth of global oil exports—and attacks on regional refineries and gas terminals. Oil prices have surged over 40% since the conflict escalated.

In the baseline market-expectation scenario, purchasing power remains flat for the average household, according to the CPB report. A short-term energy price spike would reduce it by 1.2%, while a prolonged peak leads to a 1.4% drop. CPB Director Pieter Hasekamp noted that wages will eventually adjust, but no growth materializes this year.

Inflation accelerates sharply as higher fuel costs ripple through the economy. Pump prices rise directly, and businesses pass on elevated transport and production expenses. The agency projects inflation at 5.1% to 5.3%—3 percentage points above prior forecasts—if disruptions persist.

Low-income households face the brunt, particularly car owners. Annual fuel costs could climb 200 to 350 euros on average, exceeding 1,000 euros for high-mileage drivers near the poverty line. Poverty rates may edge higher by 0.5 percentage points in the worst case.

Economic growth also suffers: 0.5% this year instead of 1.4%, potentially flatlining at 0% in 2027 under extended crisis conditions.

The CPB urges any government aid to be precise, temporary, and focused on at-risk groups, avoiding broad measures like fuel excise reductions that disproportionately benefit higher earners. Hasekamp emphasized the redistributive nature of the challenge, as the Netherlands imports more energy than it exports.

Recent leaks on cabinet plans include higher travel reimbursements, reduced taxes on gray-plate vehicles, 50 million euros for the poorest households, and home insulation funds. Hasekamp welcomed aid for vulnerable parties but stressed European coordination to prevent competitive distortions.