Even if a US-Iran deal ends the conflict tonight, Europe still faces a major energy shock from the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts cited by NOS.

The strait, through which 20% of global daily oil needs passed before the war, now sees limited tanker traffic—mostly paid passages to China and India. Iran uses this leverage to pressure the US to halt bombings. The last pre-war shipments reach European ports around April 10 and US ports by April 15, after which new supplies dry up.

Energiesystems expert Adi Imsirovic from Oxford University warns of a "huge gap" in worldwide oil and gas supply. "We will have to consume less globally—fewer vacations and business trips," he told NOS. Infrastructure damage compounds the issue: Iranian strikes hit refineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, while a March bombing slashed Qatar's LNG capacity by 17% for years, per Reuters. An Israeli strike also targeted Iran's key gas field.

Economist Bert Colijn at ING notes that even a quick war end leaves lasting high oil prices due to wrecked energy infrastructure.

In the Netherlands, Rabobank's Hugo Erken forecasts consumers and firms tightening belts naturally, halving economic growth and pushing 2027 inflation to 5%, without forced rationing. The Dutch economy shows resilience on many fronts, he adds, but energy costs will bite.

UK consultant Cornelia Meyer paints a grimmer picture for Europe. Much refined product like jet fuel and diesel comes from Asia, refined from Gulf crude. Once Asian exports halt amid scarcity, bidding wars erupt between Europe and Asia. "Europe can win some battles with its wealth, but LNG ships may divert from Nigeria to higher Asian bids," she says.

Unlike COVID's demand slump—where supply held and recovery followed demand rebound—this supply crisis proves harder to fix, Meyer and Imsirovic agree.