Dutch home prices dropped 2.7% in the first quarter of 2026, according to data from makelaarsorganisatie NVM. The average transaction price fell to €485,000 from a record €503,000 in the prior quarter, marking a steeper decline than the typical seasonal dip.

This represents the weakest quarterly performance in recent years. Compared to the first quarter of 2025, prices rose only 2.7%—precisely matching March inflation figures—leaving real terms essentially flat year-over-year. Transactions totaled around 34,600, down significantly from late 2025 levels.

NVM attributes the cooling to several pressures. Mortgage rates have ticked higher, eroding affordability. Consumer confidence has weakened, with buyers postponing decisions amid international tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. A survey of NVM members indicated that about one-third of clients showed changed behavior due to these uncertainties, opting for caution over speed.

Supply has also expanded, with listings at NVM agents reaching 30,000—a 20% increase from a year ago. Slower sales are keeping homes on the market longer, now averaging 32 days versus 30 previously. Overbidding has eased too: while two-thirds of homes still sold above asking, the premium averaged just 3.7%.

Declines varied widely. Amsterdam saw a 5.8% drop quarter-on-quarter, linked to sales of smaller ex-rental units and a relatively broader supply from ongoing de-investment by landlords. Other hard-hit areas included the Gooi & Vechtstreek (-5.2%), South Limburg (-4.7%), and the Achterhoek (-3.7%).

Sales volumes dipped most in coastal and northern regions like Delfzijl and Friesland, down over 15%. Conversely, parts of South Limburg, Drenthe, and Overijssel posted gains of 12-17%, buoyed by increased availability.

NVM chair Lana Goutsmits-Gerssen cautions that the market remains unbalanced. Greater choice benefits buyers, but scarcity persists in many areas, especially for energy-efficient family homes. The shift from frenzied bidding wars offers more negotiation room, yet affordability challenges linger for many households.